🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."